More wordle clouds…

This is very fun. Wordle clouds for two papers I’m working on right now. (Click through for full effect):

HT: Crooked Timber.

1-year Research fellowship—University of Leeds.

The department of philosophy at Leeds is currently advertising for the following 1-year research fellowship position.  This is a really nice opportunity to do pretty much full time research for a year and get paid at a good level for doing so, in a very friendly and supportive athmosphere. (Previous holders of this post include Ross Cameron (now continuing lecturer at Leeds) and Stephan Leuenberger (now continuing lecturer at Glasgow).)

School of Humanities – Department of Philosophy

Research Fellow

(Full-time, fixed term for 1 year)

This post is partially sponsored by the Centre for Metaphysics and Mind, which is based in the Department. Research interests in metaphysics, philosophy of mind, philosophy of language, philosophy of science, philosophy of logic, philosophy of mathematics or epistemology are desirable. Areas of general research interest should include metaphysics, although research specialisation in this area is not essential. You will be expected to make a substantial contribution to the research life of the Department.

You will have completed, or be close to completing, a doctorate in Philosophy, and will be able to provide evidence of excellent research potential. The post is open to candidates who already hold a postdoctoral award.

For general information see http://www.philosophy.leeds.ac.uk

University Grade 7 (£28,290 – £33,780 p.a.)

Informal enquiries to Professor Steven French, Head of Department, tel +44 (0)113 343 4112, email s.r.d.french@leeds.ac.uk.

To apply on line please visit http://www.leeds.ac.uk and click on ‘jobs’. Alternatively application packs are available via email recruitment@admin.leeds.ac.uk tel+44 (0)113 343 5771.

Job ref 316123 Closing date 6 August 2008

Interviews will be held on August 25th

Applicants should ensure that references and two writing samples are submitted by the closing date.

Funded PhD Studentship at Leeds 2008-2011

Department of Philosophy
University of Leeds
PhD Studentship in Theoretical Philosophy
The Department of Philosophy intends to offer a Studentship in Theoretical Philosophy to a suitably qualified candidate for its full-time or part-time PhD programme. The studentship is tenable for 3yr (f-t) or 6yr (p-t) from October 2008 and has both tuition and maintenance components: the tuition component will be equivalent to the full EU PhD fee (currently £3.3k p.a. f-t) and the maintenance component will be equivalent to that of the AHRC Doctoral award (currently £12.6k p.a. f-t).The award is conditional on successful application for admission to study for PhD in the Department. However, applicants need not apply for admission prior to application for this studentship. Renewal of the studentship each year is subject to satisfactory progress towards PhD completion.
The successful applicant will undertake a PhD project in the area of Theoretical Philosophy broadly construed and will be supervised by Dr.Robert Williams, Reader in Theoretical Philosophy (http://www.philosophy.leeds.ac.uk/Staff/JRGW/index.html). For a range of preferred research topics, see link there to Dr.Williams’ personal home page.
The Department operates a professional training and development scheme for postgraduates: as part of this scheme, successful applicants are often given the opportunity to undertake teaching, which is paid at an hourly rate. The Department also offers its PhD students financial support for conference attendance.
Applications should consist in 6 copies of a CV which includes a 500 word PhD-proposal: applicants should also arrange for 2 academic referees to submit references directly to the Department.
All applications and references should be marked Studentship in Theoretical Philosophy, and addressed to Ms Jenneke Stevens, Postgraduate Secretary, Department of Philosophy, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK email j.m.stevens@leeds.ac.uk tel 0113 343 3263 fax 0113 343 3265.
Closing date 15 August 2008.
The University of Leeds promotes excellence in teaching, learning and research.
We welcome applications from all sections of the community.
All information is available in alternative formats – please contact 0113 343 5771.

Summer conferencing

The summer is here and conferences are arriving!

I’m off to the states for a week in early July for the Metaphysical Mayhem, at which I’m a conference commentator. Dean Zimmerman and Josh Armstrong have put together a great lineup of folk talking on metametaphysics. After that, I’ll be going to the conditionals/formal epistemology workshop in Konstanz, presenting my paper on indicative conditionals, vagueness and belief. Another fab collection of talks. Last but by no means least, I’m due to comment on John Hawthorne’s paper at Leeds’ very own Perspectives on Ontology conference (deadline for registration is approaching—so sign up and come along!). I’ll also be involved in the 3rd Annual CMM grad conference which is happening in the few days before the Perspectives conference–Ross Cameron and myself are going to be on a panel talking about publishing as a grad student.

One thing I’m going to have to miss, with great regret, is the Tartu logical pluralism conference. Again, deadlines are approaching for this, so people who want to go should be registering now!

So much philosophy, so little time.

Chancy counterfactuals—three options

I was chatting to Rich Woodward earlier today about Jonathan Bennett‘s attitude to counterfactuals about chancy events. I thought I’d put down some of the thoughts I had arising from that conversation.

The basic thought is this. Suppose that on conditional that A were to happen, it would be overwhelmingly likely that B—but not probability 1 that B would occur. Take some cup I’m holding—if I were to drop it out the window, it’s overwhelmingly likely that it would fall to the floor and break, rather than shoot off sideways or quantum tunnel through the ground. But (we can suppose) there’s a non-zero—albeit miniscule—chance that the latter things would happen. (You don’t need to go all quantum to get this result—as Adam Elga and Barry Loewer have emphasized recently, if we have counterfactuals about macroevents, the probabilities involved in statistical mechanics also attribute tiny but nonzero probability to similarly odd things happening).

The question is, how should we evaluate the counterfactual “Drop>Break” taking into account the fact that given that Drop, there’d be a non-zero but tiny chance that ~Break?

Let’s take as our starting point a Lewisian account of of the counterfactual—“A>B” is to be true (at w) iff B is true at all the closest A-worlds to B. Then the worry many people have is that though the vast majority of closest possible Drop-worlds will be Break worlds, there’ll be a residual tiny minority of worlds where it won’t break—where quantum tunnelling or freaky statistical mechanical possibilities are realized. But since Lewis’s truth-conditions require that Break be true at *all* the closest Drop-worlds, even that tiny minority suffices to make the counterfactual “Drop>Break” false.

As goes “Drop>Break”, so goes almost every ordinary counterfactual you can think of. Almost every counterfactual would be false, if the sketch just given is right. Some people think that’s the right result. We’ll come back to it below.

Lewis’s own response is to deny that the freaky worlds are among the closest worlds. His idea is that freakiness (or as he calls it, the presence of “quasi-miracles”) itself is one of the factors that pushes worlds further away from actuality. That’s been recently criticised by John Hawthorne among others. I’m about to be in print defending a generally Lewisian line on these matters—though the details are different from Lewis’s and (I hope) less susceptible to counterexample.

But if you didn’t take that line, what should you say about the case? A tempting line of thought is to alter Lewis’s clause—requiring not truth at all the closest worlds but truth at most, or the overwhelming majority of them. (Of course, this idea presumes it makes sense to talk of relative proportions of worlds—let’s spot ourselves that).

This has a marked effect on the logic of counterfactuals—in particular, the agglomeration rule (A>B, A>C, therefore A>B&C) would have to go (Hawthorne points this out in his discussion, IIRC). To see how this could happen, suppose that there are 3 closest A-worlds, and X needs to be true at 2 of them in order for “A>X” to be true. Then let the worlds respectively be B&C, ~B&C, ~C&B-worlds. This produces a countermodel to agglomeration.

Agglomeration strikes me as a bad thing to give up. I’m not sure I have hugely compelling reasons for this, but it seems to me that a big part of the utility of counterfactuals lies in our being able to reason under a counterfactual supposition. Given agglomeration you can start by listing a bunch of counterfactual consequences (X, Y, Z), reason in standard ways (e.g. perhaps X, Y, Z entail Q) and then conclude that, under that counterfactual supposition, Q. This is essentially an inference of the following form:

  1. A>X
  2. A>Y
  3. A>Z
  4. X,Y,Z\models Q

Therefore: A>Q.

And in general I think this should be generalized to arbitrarily many premises. If we have that, counterfactual reasoning seems secure.

But agglomeration is just a special case of this, where Q=X&Y&Z (more generally, the conjunction of the various consequents). So if you want to vindicate counterfactual reasoning of the style just mentioned, it seems agglomeration is going to be at the heart of it. I think giving some vindication of this pattern is non-negotiable. To be honest though, it’s not absolutely clear that making it logically valid is obviously required. You might instead try to break this apart into a fairly reliable but ampliative inference from A>X, A>Y, A>Z to A>X&Y&Z, and then appeal to this and the premise X&Y&Z\models Q to reason logically to A>Q. So it’s far from a knock-down argument, but I still reckon it’s on to something. For example, anyone who wants to base a fictionalism on counterfactuals (were the fiction to be true then…) better take an interest in this sort of thing, since on it turns whether we can rely on multi-premise reasoning to preserve truth-according-to-the-fiction.

Jonathan Bennett is one who considers altering the truth clauses in the way just sketched (he calls it the “near miss” proposal–and points out a few tweaks that are needed to ensure e.g. that we don’t get failures of modus ponens). But he advances a second non-Lewisian way of dealing with the above clauses.

The idea is to abandon evaluations of counterfactuals being true or false, and simply assign them degrees of goodness. The degree of goodness of a counterfactual “A>B” is equal to the proportion of the closest A worlds that are B worlds.

There are at least two readings of this. One is that we ditch the idea of truth-evaluation of counterfactuals conditionals altogether, much as some have suggested we ditch truth-evaluation of indicatives. I take it that Edgington favours something like this, but it’s unclear whether that’s Bennett’s idea. The alternative is that we allow “strict truth” talk for counterfactuals, defined by a strict clause—truth at all the closest worlds—but then think that this strict requirement is never met, and so it’d be pointless to actually evaluate counterfactual utterances by reference to this strict requirement. Rather, we should evaluate them on the sliding scale given by the proportions. Really, this is a kind of error theory—but one supplemented by a substantive and interesting looking account of the assertibility conditions.

Both seem problematic to me. The main issue I have with the idea that we drop truth-talk altogether is the same issues I have with indicative conditionals—I don’t see how to deal with the great variety of embedded contexts in which we find the conditionals—conjunctions, other conditionals, attitude contexts, etc etc. That’s not going to impress someone who already believes in a probabilistic account of indicative conditionals, I guess, since they’ll have ready to hand a bunch of excuses, paraphrases, and tendancies to bite selected bullets. Really, I just don’t think this will wash—but, anyway, we know this debate.

The other thought is to stick with an unaltered Lewisian account, and accept an error theory. At first, that looks like an advance over the previous proposal, since there’s no problem in generalizing the truthconditional story about embedded contexts—we just take over the Lewis account wholesale. Now this is something of an advance of a brute error-theory, since we’ve got some positive guidance about the assertibility conditions for simple counterfactuals—they’re good to the extent that B is true in a high proportion of the closest A-worlds. And that will make paradigmatic ordinary counterfactuals like “Drop>Break” overwhelmingly good.

But really I’m not sure this is much of an advance over the Edgington-style picture. Because even though we’ve got a compositional story about truth-conditions, we don’t as yet have an idea about how to plausibily extend the idea of “degrees of goodness” beyond simple counterfactuals.

As an illustration, consider “If I were to own a china cup, then if I were to drop it out the window, it’d break”. Following simple-mindedly the original recipe in the context of this embedded conditional, we’d look for the proportion of closest owning worlds where the counterfactual “Drop>Break” is true. But because of the error-theoretic nature of the current proposal, at none (or incredibly few) of those worlds would the counterfactual be true. But that’s the wrong result—the conditional is highly assertible. So the simple-minded application of the orginal account goes wrong in this case.

Of course, what you might try to do is to identify the assertibility conditions of “Own>(Drop>Break)” with e.g. “(Own&Drop)>Break”—so reducing the problem of asseribility for this kind of embedding by way of paraphrase to one where the recipe gives plausible. But that’s to adopt the same kind of paraphrase-to-easy-cases strategy that Edgington likes, and if we’re going to have to do that all the time (including in hard cases, like attitude contexts and quantifiers) then I don’t see that a great deal of advance is made by allowing the truth-talk—and I’m just as sceptical as in the Edgington-style case that we’ll actually be able to get enough paraphrases to cover all the data.

There are other, systematic and speculative, approaches you might try. Maybe we should think of non-conditionals as having “degrees of goodness” of 1 or 0, and then quite generally think of the degree of goodness of “A>B” as the expected degree of goodness of B among the closest A-worlds—that is, we look at the closest A-worlds and the degree of goodness of B at each of these, and “average out” to get a single number we can associate with “A>B”. That’d help in the “Own>(Drop>Break)” case—in a sense, instead of looking at the expected truth value of “Drop>Break” among closest Own-worlds, we’d be looking at the expected goodness-value of “Drop>Break” among Own-worlds. (We’d also need to think about how degrees of goodness combine in the case of truth functional compounds of conditionals—and that’s not totally obvious. Jeffrey and Stalnaker have a paper on “Conditionals as Random Variables” which incorporates a proposal something like the above. IIRC, they develop it primarily in connection with indicatives to preserve the equation of conditional probability with the probability of the conditional. That last bit is no part of the ambition here, but in a sense, there’s a similar methodology in play. We’ve got an independent fix for associating degrees with simple conditionals—not the conditional subjective probability as in the indicative case—rather, the degree is fixed by the proportion of closest antecedent worlds where the (non-conditional) consequent holds. In any case, that’s where I’d start looking if I wanted to pursue this line).

Is this sort of idea best combined with the Edgington style “drop truth” line or the error-theoretic evaluation of conditionals? Neither, it seems to me. Just as previously, the compositional semantics based on “truth” seems to do no work at all—the truth value of compounds of conditionals will be simply irrelevant to their degrees of goodness. So it seems like a wheel spinning idly to postulate truth-values as well as these “Degrees of goodness”. But also, it doesn’t seem to me that the proposal fits very well with the spirit of Edgington’s “drop truth” line. For while we’re not running a compositional semantics on truth and falsity, we are running something that looks for all the world like a compositional semantics on degrees of goodness. Indeed, it’s pretty tempting to think of these “degrees of goodness” as degrees of truth—and think that what we’ve really done is replace binary truth-evaluation of counterfactuals with a certain style of degree-theoretic evaluation of them.

So I reckon that there are three reasonably stable approaches. (1) The Lewis-style approach where freaky worlds are further away then they’d otherwise be on account of their freakiness—where the Lewis-logic is maintained and ordinary counterfactuals are true in the familiar sense. (2) The “near miss” approach where logic is revised, ordinary counterfactuals are true in the familiar sense. (3) Then there’s the “degree of goodness” approach—which people might be tempted to think of in the guise of an error theory, or as an extension of the Adams/Edgington-style “no truth value” treatment of indicatives—but which I think will have to end up being something like a degree-theoretic semantics for conditionals, albeit of a somewhat unfamiliar sort.

I suggested earlier that an advantage of the Lewis approach over the “near miss” approach was that agglomeration formed a central part of inferential practice with conditionals. I think this is also an advantage that the Lewis account has over the degree-theoretic approach. How exactly to make this case isn’t clear, since it isn’t altogether obvious what the *logic* of the degree theoretic setting should be—but the crucial point is “A>X1″… “A>Xn” can all be good to a very high degree, while “A>X1&…&Xn” are good to a very low degree. Unless we restrict ourselves to starting points which are good to degree 1, then we’ll have to be wary of degradation of degree of goodness while reasoning under counterfactual suppositions, just as on the near miss proposal we’d have to be wary of degradation from truth to faslity. So the Lewisian approach I favour is, I think, the only one of the approaches currently on the table which makes classical reasoning under counterfactual suppositions fully secure.

Kripkean conservativeness?

Suppose you have some theory R, formulated in that fragment of English that is free of semantic vocabulary. The theory, we can assume, is at least “effectively” classical—e.g. we can assume excluded middle and so forth for each predicate that it uses. Now think of total theory—which includes not just this theory but also, e.g. a theory of truth.

It would be nice if truth in this widest theory could work “transparently”—so that we could treat “p” and “T(p)” as intersubstitutable at least in all extensional contexts. To get that, something has to go. E.g. the logic for the wider language might have to be non-classical, to avoid the Liar paradox.

One question is whether weakening logic is enough to avoid problems. For all we’ve said so far, it might be that one can have a transparent truth-predicate—but only if one’s non-semantic theories are set up just right. In the case at hand, the worry is that R cannot be consistently embedded within a total theory that includes a transparent truth predicate. Maybe in order to ensure consistency of total theory, we’d have to play around with what we say in the non-semantic fragment. It’d be really interesting if we could get a guarantee that we never need to do that. And this is one thing that Kripke’s fixed point construction seems to give us.

Think of Kripke’s techniques as a “black box”, which takes as input classical models of the semantics-free portion of our language, and outputs non-classical models of language as a whole—and in such a way as to make “p” and “Tp” always coincide in semantic value. Crucially, the non-classical model coincides with the classical model taken as input when it comes to the semantics-free fragment. So if “S” is in the semantics-free language and is true-on-input-model, then it will be true-on-the-output model.

This result seems clearly relevant to the question of whether we disrupt theories like R by embedding them within a total theory incorporating transparent truth. The most obvious thought is to let M be the intended (classical) model of our base language—and then view the Kripke construction as outputting a candidate to be the intended interpretation of total language. And the result just given tells us that if R is true relative to M, it remains true relative to the outputted Kripkean (non-classical model).

But this is a contentious characterization. For example, if our semantics-free language contains absolutely unrestricted quantifiers, there won’t be a (traditional) model that can serve as the “intended interpretation”. For (traditional) models assign sets as the range of quantifiers, and no set contains absolutely everything—in particular no set can contain all sets. And even if somehow we could finesse this (e.g. if we could argue that our quantifiers can never be absolutely unrestricted), it’s not clear that we should be identifying true-on-the-output-model with truth, which is crucial to the above suggested moral.

Field suggests we take a different moral from the Kripkean construction. Focus on the question of whether theories like R (which ex hypothesi are consistent taken alone), might turn out to be inconsistent in the light of total theory—in particular, might turn out to be inconsistent once we’ve got a transparent truth predicate in our language. He argues that the Kripkean construction gives us this.

Here’s the argument. Suppose that R is classically consistent. We want to know whether R+T is consistent, where R+T is what you get from R when you add in a transparent truth-predicate. The consistency of R means that there’s a classical model on which it is true. Input that into Kripke’s black box. And what we get out the other end is a (non-classical) model of R+T. And the existence of such a model (whether or not it’s an “intended one”) means that R+T is consistent.

Field explicitly mentions one worry about this–that it might equivocate over “consistent”. If consistent just means “has a model (of such-and-such a kind)” then the argument goes through as it stands. But in the present setting it’s not obvious what all this talk of models is doing for us. After all, we’re not supposed to be assuming that one among the models is the “intended” one. In fact, we’re supposed to be up for the thesis that the very notion of “intended interpretation” should be ditched, in which case there’d be no space even for viewing the various models as possibly, though not actually, intended interpretations.

This is the very point at which Kreisel’s squeezing argument is supposed to help us. For it forges a link between intuitive consistency, and the model-theoretic constructions. So we could reconstruct the above line of thought in the following steps:

  1. R is consistent (in the intuitive sense)
  2. So: R is consistent (in the model-theoretic sense). [By a squeezing argument]
  3. So: R+T is consistent (in the model-theoretic sense). [By the Kripkean construction]
  4. So: R+T is consistent (in the intuitive sense). [By the squeezing argument again]

Now, I’m prepared to think that the squeezing argument works to bridge the gap between (1) and (2). For here we’re working within the classical fragment of English, and I see the appeal of the premises of the squeezing argument in that setting (actually, for this move we don’t really need the premise I’m most concerned with—just the completeness result and intuitive soundness suffice).

But the move from (3) to (4) is the one that I find dodgy. For this directly requires the principle that if there is a formal (3-valued) countermodel to a given argument, then that argument is invalid (in the intuitive sense). And that is exactly the point over which I voiced scepticism in the previous post. Why should the recognition that there’s an assignment of values to R+T on which an inference isn’t value-1 preserving suggest that the argument from R+T to absurdity is invalid? Without illegitimately sneaking in some thoughts about what value-1 represents (e.g. truth, or determinate truth) I can’t even begin to get a handle on this question.

In the previous post I sketched a fallback option (and it really was only a sketch). I suggested that you might run a squeezing argument for Kleene logic using probabilistic semantics, rather than 3-valued ones, since we do have a sense of what a probabilistic assignment represents, and why failure to preserve probability might be an indicator of intuitive invalidity. Now maybe if this were successful, we could bridge the gap—but in a very indirect way. One would argue from the existence of a 3-valued model, via completeness, to the non-existence of a derivation of absurdity from R+T. And then, by a second completeness result, one would argue that there had to exist a probabilistic model for R+T. Finally, one would appeal to the general thought that such probabilistic models secured consistency (in the intuitive sense).

To summarize. The Kripkean constructions obviously secure a technical conservativeness result. As Field mentions, we should be careful to distinguish this from a true conservativeness result: the result that no inconsistency can arise from adding transparent truth to a classically consistent base theory. But whether the technical result we can prove gives us reason (via a Kreisel-like argument) to believe the true conservativeness result turns on exactly the issue of whether a 3-valued countermodel to an argument gives us reason to think that that argument is intuitively invalid. And it’s not obvious at all where that last part is coming from—so for me, for now, it remains open whether the Kripkean constructions give us reason to believe true conservativeness.

Squeezing arguments

Kreisel gave a famous and elegant argument for why we should be interested in model-theoretic validity. But I’m not sure who can use it.

Some background. Let’s suppose we can speak unproblematically about absolutely all the sets. If so, then there’s something strange about model theoretic definitions of validity. The condition for an argument to be model-theoretically valid it needs to such that, relative to any interpretation, if the premises are true then the conclusion is true. It’s natural to think that one way or another, the reason to be interested in such a property of arguments is that if an argument is valid in this sense, then it preserves truth. And one can see why this would be—if it is truth-preserving on every interpretation, then in particular it should be truth-preserving on the correct interpretation, but that’s just to say that it guarantees that whenever the premises are true, the conclusion is so too.

Lots of issues about the intuitive line of thought arise when you start to take the semantic paradoxes seriously. But the one I’m interested in here is a puzzle about how to think about it when the object-language in question is (on the intended interpretation) talking about absolutely all the sets. The problem is that when we spell out the formal details of the model-theoretic definition of validity, we appeal to “truth on an interpretation” in a very precise sense—and one of the usual conditions on that is that the domain of quantification is a set. But notoriously there is no set of all sets, and so the “intended interpretation” of discourse about absolutely all sets isn’t something we find in the space of interpretations relative to which the model-theoretic definition of validity for that language is defined. But then the idea that actual truth is a special case of truth-on-an-interpretation is well and truly broken, and without that, it’s sort of obscure what significance the model-theoretic characterization has.

Now, Kreisel suggested the following way around this (I’m following Hartry Field’s presentation here). First of all, distinguish between (i) model theoretic validity, defined as above as preservation of truth-on-set-sized-interpretations (call that MT-validity); and (ii) intuitive validity (call that I-validity)—expressing some property of arguments that has philosophical significance to us. Also suppose that we have available a derivability relation.

Now we argue:

(1) [Intuitive soundness] If q is derivable from P, then the argument from P to q is I-valid.

(2) [Countermodels] If the argument from P to q is not MT-valid, then the argument from P to q is not I-valid.

(3) [Completeness] If the argument from P to q is MT-valid, then q is derivable from P.

From (1)-(3) it follows that an argument is MT-valid iff it is I-valid.

Now (1) seems like a decent constraint on the choice of a deductive system. Friends of classical logic will just be saying that whatever that philosophically significant sense of validity is that I-valid expresses, classical syntactic consequences (e.g. from A&B to A, from ~~A to A) should turn out I-valid. Of course, non-classicists will disagree with the classicist over the I-validity of classical rules—but they will typically have a different syntactic relation and it should be that with which we’re running the squeezing argument, at least in the general case. Let’s spot ourselves this.

(3) is the technical “completeness” theorem for a given syntactic consequence relation and model-theory. Often we have this. Sometimes we don’t—for example, for second order languages where the second order quantifiers are logically constrained to be “well-behaved”, there are arguments which are MT-valid but not derivable in the standard ways. But e.g. classical logic does have this result.

Finally, we have (2). Now, what this says is that if an argument has a set-sized interpretation relative to which the premises are true and the conclusion false, then it’s not I-valid.

Now this premise strikes me as delicate. Here’s why for the case of classical set theory we started with, it seems initially compelling to me. I’m still thinking of I-validity as a matter of guaranteed truth-preservation—i.e. truth-preservation no matter what the (non-logical) words involved mean. And I look at a given set-sized model and think—well, even though I was actually speaking in an unrestricted language, I could very well have been speaking in a language where my quantifiers were restricted. And what the set-sized countermodel shows is that on that interpretation of what my words mean, the argument wouldn’t be truth-preserving. So it can’t be I-valid.

However, suppose you adopt the stance where I-validity isn’t to be understood as “truth-preservation no matter what the words mean”—and for example, Field argues that the hypothesis that the two are biconditionally related is refutable. Why then should you think that the presence of countermodels have anything to do with I-invalidity? I just don’t get why I should see this as intuitively obvious (once I’ve set aside the usual truth-preservation understanding of I-validity), nor do I see what an argument for it would be. I’d welcome enlightenment/references!

We’ve been talking so far about the case of classical set theory. But I reckon the point surfaces with respect to other settings.

For example, Field favours a nonclassical logic (an extension of the strong Kleene logic) for dealing with the paradoxes. His methodology is to describe the logic model-theoretically. So what he gives us is a definition of MT-validity for a language containing a transparent truth-predicate. But of course, it’d be nice if we could explain why we’re interested in MT-validity so-characterized, and one attractive route is to give something like a Kreisel squeezing argument.

What would this look like? Well, we’d need to endorse (1)—to pick out a syntactic consequence relation and judge the basic principles to be I-valid. Let’s spot ourselves that. We’d also need (3), the completeness result. That’s tricky. For the strong Kleene logic itself, we have a completeness result relative to a 3-valued semantics. So relative to K3 and the usual 3-valued semantics, we’ve got (3). But Field’s own system adds to the K3 base a strong conditional, and the model theory is far more complex than a 3-valued one. And completeness just might not be available for this system—see p.305 of Field’s book.

But even if we have completeness (suppose we were working directly with K3, rather than Field’s extension) to me the argument seems puzzling. The problem again is with (2). Suppose a given argument, from P to q, has a 3-valued countermodel. What do we make on this? Well, this means there’s some way of assigning semantic values to expressions such that the premises all get value 1, and the conclusion gets value less than 1 (0.5, or 0). But what does that tell us? Well, if we were allowed to identify having-semantic-value-1 with being-true, then we’d forge a connection between countermodels and failure-to-preserve-truth. And so we’d be back to the situation that faced us in set-theory, in that countermodels would display interpretations relative to which truth isn’t preserved. I expressed some worries before about why if I-validity is officially primitive, this should be taken to show that the argument is I-valid. But let’s spot ourselves an answer to that question—we can suppose that even if I-valid is primitive, then failure of truth-preservation on some interpretation is a sufficient condition for failure to be I-valid.

The problem is that in the present case we can’t even get as far as this. For we’re not supposed to be thinking of semantic value 1 as truth, and nor are we supposed to be thinking of the formal models as specifying “meanings” for our words. If we do start thinking in this way, we open ourselves up to a whole heap of nasty questions—e.g. it looks very much like sentences with value 1/2 will be thought of as truth-value gaps, whereas the target was to stablize a transparent notion of truth—a side-effect of which is that we will be able to reduce truth-value gaps to absurdity.

Field suggests a different gloss in some places—think of semantic value 1 as representing determinate truth, semantic value 0 as representing determinate falsity, and semantic value 1/2 as representing indeterminacy. OK: so having a 3-valued countermodel to an argument should be glossed have displaying a case where the premises are all determinately true, and the conclusion is at best indeterminate. But recall that “indeterminacy” here is *not* supposed to be a status incompatible with truth—otherwise we’re back to truth-value gaps—so we’ve not got any reason here to think that we’ve got a failure of truth-preservation. So whereas holding that failure of truth-preservation is a sufficient condition for I-invalidity would be ok to give us (2) for the case of classical set theory, in the non-classical cases we’re thinking about it just isn’t enough to patch the argument. What we need instead is that failure of determinate-truth-preservation is a sufficient condition for I-invalidity. But where is that coming from? And what’s the rationale for it?

Here’s a final thought about how to make progress on these questions. Notice that the Kreisel squeezing argument is totally schematic—we don’t have to pack in anything about the particular model theory or proof theory involved, so long as (1-3) are satisfied. As an illustration, suppose you’re working with some model-theoretically specified consequence relation where there isn’t a nice derivability relation which is complete wrt it—where a derivability relation is nice if it is “practically implementable”–i.e. doesn’t appeal to essentially infinitary rules (like the omega-rule). Well, nothing in the squeezing argument required the derivability relation to be *nice*. Add in whatever infinitary rule you like to beef up the derivability relation until it is complete wrt the model theory, and so long as what you end up with is intuitively sound—i.e. (1) is met—then the Kreisel argument can be run.

A similar point goes if we hold fixed the proof theory and vary the model theory that defines MT-validity. The condition is that we need a model theory that (a) makes the derivability relation complete; and (b) is such that countermodels entail I-invalidity. So long as something plays that role, we’re home and dry. Suppose, for example, you give a probabilistic semantics for classical logic (in the fashion that Field does, via Popper functions, in his 1977 JP paper), and interpret an assignment of probabilities as a possible distribution of partial beliefs over sentences in the language. An argument is MT-valid, on this semantics, just in case if whenever premises are probability 1 (conditionally on anything) then so is the conclusion. Slogan: MT-validity is certainty-preservation. A countermodel is then some representation of partial beliefs whereby one is certain of all the premises, but less than certain of the conclusion. Just as with non-probabilistic semantics, there’ll be a question of whether the presence of a countermodel in this sense is sufficient for I-invalidity—but it doesn’t seem to me that we weaken our case by this shift.

But what seems significant about this move is that, in principle, we might be able to do the same for the non-classical cases. Rather than do a 3-valued semantics and worry about what to make of “semantic value 1 preservation” and its relation to I-validity, one searches for a complete probabilistic semantics. The advantage is that we’ve got a interpretation standing by of what individual assignments of probabilities means (in terms of degrees of belief)—and so I don’t envisage new interpretative problems arising for this choice of semantics, as they did for the 3-valued way of doing things.

[Of course, to carry out the version of the squeezing argument itself, we’ll need to actually have such a semantics—and maybe to keep things clean, we need an axiomization of what a probability function is that doesn’t tacitly appeal to the logic itself (that’s the role that Popper’s axiomatization of conditional probability functions in Field’s 1977 interpretation). I don’t know of such an axiomitization—advice gratefully received.]

Locke lectures

More real content soon, I promise. For the time being I’m down in Oxford on a flying visit to do business. Yes, I’m all grown up now. But I’m also taking the chance to attend one of Hartry Field’s six John Locke lectures—the series is entitled “Logic, Normativity and Rational Revisability”, which are currently being held on Wednesday evenings in Oxford. What is particularly super-funky is that they’re available as mp3 files. (Scroll down this page to find them—the page looks horrible in firefox, but ok in explorer.)

The upshot of all this is that I was able to spend over two hours on the M1 listening to the first two lectures (I was a bit worried that a pile-up would be caused by in-car worrying over whether “potential overrulingness” is a partial ordering of norms—but not so). The sound quality is actually pretty good, and the content fascinating—I’d recommend people give it a go.

I think it’d be great if more of these kind of set piece lecture series were made available in this way. One thing—I can’t find any way of subscribing to these podcasts through rss or itunes and the like (I’m kinda hazy on the technology behind automated podcasting, but I know I like it!). I’m presently manually downloading them and getting them registered… anyone aware of a more elegant way of doing this?

sittin’ on the dock of the bay

… well, not quite. I’m sitting on my own front step, having mislaid my keys somewhere, waiting for my partner to come back and let me in. Luckily, wireless stretches to the front step, it’s not raining, and I had my laptop on me.

[I got in, by the way—and managed to rejoin my keys later in the evening. Thanks to all who expressed concern! In more navel-gazing news, I spent Monday (a national holiday here in the UK) at the beautiful Ingleton waterfalls — two courses of waterfalls falling through a pair of parallel gorges about an hour west of where I live.]

Partial emotions?

If you think emotional states have representational content, it seems reasonable to think that there are rational constraints between the having of a certain emotion (say, feeling regretful that one has dropped something on one’s foot) and the having of a certain belief (say, believing that one has dropped something on one’s foot). Now, I imagine that some would want to question such a connection, but it seems at least a decent position to consider something like:

  • it is rational to regret that p only if it is rational to believe that p.

But now suppose that we think that for theoretical purposes (say in characterizing instrumentally rational action) we should really be talking in terms of partial beliefs rather than all-or-nothing beliefs. In the official idiom, it seems, we dispense with talking about “believing that one has dropped something on one’s foot” and instead talk of things like “believing to degree d that one has dropped something on one’s foot”. (I’ll come back later to the question about whether we just ditch the all-or-nothing belief talk).

What then should we say about the rational connections between doxastic and emotional states? How are emotions rationally constrained by belief? Here’s a very natural thing to write down:

  • it is rational to regret that p to degree d only if it is rational to believe that p to degree d.

The trouble with this is that I’m not sure I really understand the notion of “partial regret” that is now being talked about. Of course, I understand the idea of intensity of regret: I might regret insulting someone with a greater intensity than I regret forgetting my umbrella this morning. But “degrees of regret” in the intensity sense aren’t obviously what we want in this connection (I’m tempted to say they’re obviously not what we want). But do we really any other grip on the notion of a degreed emotion?

Of course, some people are likely to have similar sceptical thoughts about the notion of belief–finding all-or-nothing belief talk familiar home turf, and talk of partial belief rather mysterious. But the cases, to me, seem only superficially similar. To begin with, I think I had some pre-theoretic grip on the notion of degree of belief/confidence (though even here I think that there is a phenomenological intensity sense of “degree of confidence” that needs to be cleared out of the way). And even if I were to give up the pre-theoretic grip, I’ve at least got a theoretical/operational grip on the notion of degree of belief through decision-theoretic connections to action.

With partial emotions, I’m all at sea—things like regret seem to me, pre-theoretically, all-or-nothing (setting aside differences of felt intensity). And neither do I have a natural operational/theoretical grip on such partial emotions to reach for.  I’d be very glad if someone could convince me that I do understand the notion, or point to literature where such issues are discussed!

Another strategy, I suppose, is to think of all-or-nothing belief as distinct from the degreed notion. If that’s the case, then we could formulate the connection between beliefs and regret just as originally stated. This’d be interesting to me, since previously I’ve never really been clear what’s lost if we ditch all-or-nothing belief-talk (and ensuing puzzles like the lottery paradox) and only appeal in our theories of mind to the partial beliefs. But if other emotional states with intentional content have rational connections to all-or-nothing beliefs, then it seems we’ve got a real theoretical role for such states.

Of course, this line of thought gives urgency to puzzles about how to relate partial beliefs and all-or-nothing beliefs — (e.g. all-or-nothing belief as partial belief above a certain threshold). That’s a whole literature in itself.

What do people think? Am I being really naive in thinking there are rational connections like the above to get worried about? Do they require reformulation when we introduce partial beliefs, or (as suggested at the end) is this a way of arguing the importance of retaining all-or-nothing belief talk as well as partial belief talk? Can anyone make sense of the notion of a partial emotion (when distinguished from the phenomenological-intensity reading)?